Global oil prices expected to fall in 2024: Moody’s

According to Moody’s, oil prices are likely to fall to almost $70 a barrel by the end of 2024.

The agency pointed out oil prices had shot up to $120 barrels in June this year amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but fell below $100 this month.

In its report on the Asia Pacific (APAC), Moody’s said APAC is a big oil importing region with Singapore and Hong Kong being the primary oil importing countries. It said for net energy importers namely South Korea, Japan, Thailand and Singapore the effect on household energy bills has been considerable. The report said countries dependent on the import of liquified natural gas namely Taiwan, China, Japan and South Korea were vulnerable to prices increase.

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Moody’s Analytics said with the increase in oil prices, India, Pakistan and Vietnam are paying more and higher commodity prices are hurting households and adding to global inflation.

However, Australia has been experiencing an export boom due to increased coal and LNG prices which have helped its mining industry and boosted government revenue, the reports said.

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Similarly, oil exporting countries in the Asia Pacific region namely Indonesia and Malaysia have seen an uptick in revenue due to increase in oil prices.

Oil prices tumbled five per cent on Monday due to China’s weak economic recovery as the country’s central bank slashed key interest rates. China’s industrial production and retail sales plunged last month although industrial production was up.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics warned that the risk of stagflation in the world economy is rising. The report made Wall Street jittery as stocks fell initially on Monday but recovered later amid fears of global recession.

Oil prices were also affected by prospects of return of Iranian oil into the international market. Iran said it would be delivering its final proposal to revive the stalled 2015 nuclear deal amid possibility of crude oil entering the market which could relieve supply constraints.

(With inputs from Agencies)